At best, President Bush faces an extremely difficult battle for reelection. First, as we have noted many times, no president but Truman who has done this poorly in the public polls of an election year has in the end been reelected. Could Bush be the second Truman? It's possible, just as it is very possible he's the second Ford (1976), Carter (1980), or Bush I (1992).The remaining undecideds are heavily (care to rephrase that?) female and anti-Bush? If that's true, then Bush does have a chance. All the anti-Bush females I know have already made up their minds to vote for Kerry. Actually they had already made up their minds to vote for Bush's opponent on January 20, 2001.
In addition, as the NBC/Wall Street Journal's latest survey--and many others--strongly imply, the remaining undecideds are heavily female and anti-Bush, at least at this point....
Monday, August 30, 2004
The usually sensible Larry J. Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, publishes his prognostications on a website called Sabato's Crystal Ball. This morning he talks about the likelihood of a Bush "bounce" from the GOP convention. He says, in part: