Wednesday, November 03, 2004

How'd I Do?

In my final election projections I said:
Bush will win 51 percent of the two-party popular vote....
Well, it looks like Bush will wind up with about 51.5 percent of the two-party popular vote. Not bad.

Then I said:
[Bush] will take at least 279 and perhaps well more than 300 electoral votes. The range of uncertainty about electoral votes (EVs) reflects the apparent closeness of the race in many states.

Kerry faces likely-to-certain victory in the District of Columbia (3 EVs) and these 20 States: California (55 EVs), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Iowa (7), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10). That's a total of 259 EVs for Kerry. The other 30 States, which are leaning-to-solid for Bush, have 279 EVs....
I went on to explain how Bush might garner more than 279 EVs. But my baseline prediction of 279 EVs for Bush and 259 EVs for Kerry is looking very good at the moment. Bush might take Iowa, but that one's as "tight as a tick," as Dan Whatshisname would say. Other than that, everything seems to be falling the way I called it (with a slight caveat on Ohio).

Over in the Senate, I called it this way:
Republicans are poised to pick up six Democrat seats: Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, and South Dakota. Democrats will probably pick up three Republican seats: Alaska, Colorado, and Illinois. That's a net GOP gain of three seats, for a 54-46 advantage in the Senate.

The best the Republicans can hope for is 55-45, with a come-from-behind win by Republican Murkowski in Alaska. However, that gain could be canceled by a come-from-behind win by Democrat Daschle in South Dakota.
At the moment, the Republican (Martinez) has a slim lead in Florida. A win there would make it 54-46. On top of that, Murkowski has a slim lead in Alaska. If she holds that lead, the GOP will take a 55-45 edge, now that Daschle has gone down in South Dakota -- praise heaven.

So, I humbly accept the Nostradamus Award for 2004. In doing so, I acknowledge the help of Iowa Electronic Markets and TradeSports, both of which were on the money until speculative madness began to prevail on election eve. You've got to know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em.