The Bush-Kerry race tightened to a virtual dead heat after Kerry picked Edwards as his running mate. (Yes, there was an Edwards "bounce".) Bush kept a slim lead through most of July, but that lead has been dripping down the drain for about five days.
Perhaps the drippage is in anticipation of a Kerry "bounce" from the Democrat convention. Perhaps it's due to the 9/11 report, which could only hurt Bush. Perhaps it's due to lackluster news about the economy and the war. Perhaps it's a combination of all these factors. In any event, Bush now leads in only one of my three projections, and that lead hinges on Florida, which is Bush's by a hair (as of tonight).
Will August bring better news for Bush? Will he get a September "bounce" from the GOP convention? Stay tuned, as the electoral projections turn.