Wednesday, March 26, 2008

The Wright Effect

UPDATED 03/27/08

Scott Rasmussen's tracking poll was the best of the bunch in 2004. Given Rasmussen's credibility, I turn to his polls about general-election matchups for an accurate view of what the Rev. Wright hath wrought, with respect to Barack Obama's presidential prospects. Obama's chance of winning the Democrat nomination hasn't fallen much (which says a lot about Democrats), but he has fallen behind Hillary Clinton as a prospective opponent of John McCain.
  • As recently as February 20-21, Obama led McCain by4 percentage points (46-42).
  • At that time, McCain led Clinton by 4 percentage points (47-43).
  • McCain now leads Obama by 10 percentage points (51-41), and Clinton by 7 10 percentage points (50-43) (51-41).
In other words, Clinton has (prospectively) become the tougher opponent for McCain, but mainly because of Obama's slippage. McCain has gained significant ground against both Democrats. -- adding 6 points to his lead over Clinton and notching a positive 14-point swing in his matchup with Obama. It isn't due to MCain's words or deeds, but to the Rev. Wright, Obama's defense of black racism, and the Clinton-Obama mud-fest. (Cackle! Cackle!)