Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Election 2008: Sixth Forecast

My eighth forecast is here.

The Presidency - Method 1

Intrade posts State-by-State odds odds on the outcome of the presidential election in November. I assign all of a State's electoral votes to the party whose nominee that is expected to win that State. Where the odds are 50-50, I split the State's electoral votes between the two parties.

As of today, the odds point to this result:

Democrat -- 293 electoral votes (EVs)

Republican -- 245 EVs

That's a pickup of 35 EVs for the GOP since my fifth forecast, which I updated only three days ago.

The Presidency - Method 2

I have devised a "secret formula" for estimating the share of electoral votes cast for the winner of the presidential election. (The formula's historical accuracy is described in my second forecast.) The formula currently yields these estimates of the outcome of this year's presidential election:
Democrat nominee -- 278 to 324 EVs

Republican nominee -- 214 to 260 EVs
That's a loss for the GOP nominee of 7 to 20 EVs since my fifth forecast. The "good news" is that the ranges estimated by method 2 span the values obtained by method 1. If that remains the case, I will be more confident of my estimates as the election approaches.

U.S. Senate

No change since my fifth forecast. Democrats will pick up five Senate seats, one each in Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia, plus Mississippi or Minnesota. The gain will change the balance from 51 Democrats (including Lieberman and Sanders, both nominally independent) and 49 Republicans to 56 Democrats and 44 Republicans.