The Presidency - Method 1
Intrade posts State-by-State odds odds on the outcome of the presidential election in November. I assign all of a State's electoral votes to the party whose nominee that is expected to win that State. Where the odds are 50-50, I split the State's electoral votes between the two parties.
As of today, the odds point to this result:
Democrat -- 328 electoral votes (EVs)
Republican -- 210 EVs
The Presidency - Method 2I have devised a "secret formula" for estimating the share of electoral votes cast for the winner of the presidential election. (The formula's historical accuracy is described in my second forecast.) The formula currently yields these estimates of the outcome of this year's presidential election:
Democrat nominee -- 271 to 304 EVsU.S. Senate
Republican nominee -- 234 to 267 EVs
Democrats will pick up five Senate seats, one each in Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia, plus Mississippi or Minnesota. The gain will change the balance from 51 Democrats (including Lieberman and Sanders, both nominally independent) and 49 Republicans to 56 Democrats and 44 Republicans.