Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Election 2008: Third Forecast

My eighth forecast is here.

The Presidency - Method 1

Intrade posts odds on which party's nominee will win in each State and, therefore, take each State's electoral votes. I assign all of a State's electoral votes to the party that is expected to win that State. Where the odds are 50-50, I split the State's electoral votes between the two parties.

As of today, the odds point to this result:

Democrat, 306 electoral votes

Republican, 232 electoral votes

(A slight gain for the Dems since the first forecast, 11/16/07, and second forecast, 11/18/07.)

The Presidency - Method 2

I have devised a "secret formula" for estimating the share of electoral votes cast for the winner of the presidential election. I describe the formula's historical accuracy in my second forecast. The formula currently yields these estimates of the outcome of next year's presidential election (CORRECTED, 12/13/07):
Democrat nominee -- 274 to 313 EVs

Republican nominee -- 225 to 264 EVs
This is a much better outlook for the Dems than the one I issued on November 18. It is attributable mainly to the decline of Hillary Clinton's prospects for her party's nomination. Clinton, in spite of her strength within the Democrat Party, would be a weaker nominee than Barack Obama. As Obama gains ground on Clinton, a Democrat victory becomes more likely -- as of now. Obama could become damaged goods by the time he emerges from a bitterly fought contest for his party's nomination.

U.S. House and Senate


* * *

How did I do in 2004? See this and this.