Friday, November 16, 2007

Election 2008: First Forecast

My eighth forecast is here.

The Presidency

Intrade posts odds on which party's nominee will win in each State and, therefore, take each State's electoral votes. I assign all of a State's electoral votes to the party that is expected to win that State. Where the odds are 50-50, I split the State's electoral votes between the two parties.

As of today, the odds point to this result: Democrat, 302 electoral votes; Republican, 236 electoral votes.

U.S. House and Senate


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How did I do last year? See this and this.