The Presidency - Method 1
Intrade posts State-by-State odds odds on the outcome of the presidential election in November. I assign all of a State's electoral votes to the party whose nominee that is expected to win that State. Where the odds are 50-50, I split the State's electoral votes between the two parties.
As of today, the odds point to this result:
Democrat, 300 electoral votes
Republican, 238 electoral votes
The Presidency - Method 2I have devised a "secret formula" for estimating the share of electoral votes cast for the winner of the presidential election. (The formula's historical accuracy is described in my second forecast.) The formula currently yields these estimates of the outcome this year's presidential election [UPDATED
Democrat nominee --
261 to 302 EVs 228 to to 269 EVs261 to 310 EVs
Republican nominee --
236 to 277 EVs 269 to 310 EVs236 to 277 EVs
UPDATED 02/09/08: Democrats will pick up four Senate seats, one each in Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia. The gain will change the balance from 51 Democrats (including Lieberman and Sanders, both nominally independent) and 49 Republicans to 55 Democrats and 45 Republicans.
The House? Later.
How did I do in 2004? See this and this.