Wednesday, November 03, 2004

I Told You So

Just about three weeks ago, I debunked the notion that the "upsurge" in new voter registrations bode well for Democrats. As I said then:
...Of course, voter registrations are spiking now; the election is coming and registration deadlines are looming. Of course registrations are at an all-time high; the U.S. is more populous than ever. Of course the Democrats are claiming that the new registrations help them; we hear that every four years because Democrats seem to think that new voters prefer Democrats, though there's little evidence for that in the results of presidential elections in recent decades. In fact, the "emotionally intense" 1968 election -- when new, draft-age voters presumably favored anti-war Humphrey over tricky Dick and George the segregationist -- resulted in a trouncing of Humphrey, the only liberal in the field.
Well, as I write this, Bush is pulling in 51 percent of the popular vote, which is probably about what he'll have when all's said and done. Four years ago, Bush pulled only 48 percent of the popular vote. So much for all those new Democrats. As Fox News says: "2004: Not the Year of the Youth Vote."

Oh, and about my final election projections. I think I was right on target. Kerry holds a slim lead in one State that I called for Bush -- Nevada -- but only 18 percent of the precincts have reported there. Everything else seems to be going according to my final projections, including the Senate races.

I'm not going to stay up and wait for all the States to be called. I'll claim my Nostradamus Award later this morning.