Friday, October 15, 2004

Irrational Risk Aversion at Work

Daniel Drezner is listing heavily toward Kerry. Here's a telling remark:
Given the foreign policy stakes in this election, I prefer a leader who has a good decision-making process, even if his foreign policy instincts are skewed in a direction I don't like, over a leader who has a bad decision-making process, even if his foreign policy instincts are skewed in a direction I do like.
In other words, because Drezner is afraid of the small probability that he will be killed in a traffic accident he would rather walk to the corner store, and be ripped off, than get in his car and drive to Wal-Mart. When did the oyster replace the eagle as America's symbol?

To change the metaphor, think of Kerry's foreign policy as a zero. Kerry is a whiz at multiplication, but no matter how well he multiplies, the result is always zero. Bush, on the other hand, has a foreign policy with a value of, say, 10. According to Drezner, Bush may sometimes multiply that foreign policy by zero and get an answer of zero -- but not always. Bush's answer will usually be closer to 10 than zero.

Anyway, who says Kerry has a better decision-making process than Bush? That's all hype. Kerry keeps asking questions because he's searching for his principles and can't find them. There's more about Kerry's vaunted decision-making style here.