Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Home Run Kings

There are many ways to compare performances in baseball. The most common way to compare home-run hitters is by the number of home runs compiled in a career or in a season. With Barry Bonds in (perhaps futile) pursuit of Hank Aaron's career home-run record, there is renewed attention to question of the "greatest" home-run hitter of all time. Here's the usual list of the top-10 home run hitters, through the 2005 season, with relevant embellishments:

1. Most Regular-Season Home Runs, Career

Player

Years

Times led league in HR

Total HR

Total AB

HR per AB

Hank Aaron

1954-1976

4

755

12,364

0.061

Babe Ruth

1914-1935

12

714

8,398

0.085

Barry Bonds

1986-2005

2

708

9,140

0.077

Willie Mays

1951-1973

4

660

10,881

0.061

Sammy Sosa

1989-2005

2

588

8,401

0.070

Frank Robinson

1956-1976

1

586

10,006

0.059

Mark McGwire

1986-2001

4

583

6,187

0.094

Harmon Killebrew

1954-1975

6

573

8,147

0.070

Rafael Palmeiro

1986-2005

0

569

10,472

0.054

Reggie Jackson

1967-1987

4

563

9,864

0.057

The right column of Table 1 (home runs per at-bat) gives away one of the shortcomings of looking at total home runs; namely, that statistic recognizes longevity as much as it does prowess. Let's look, instead, at career leaders ranked by home runs per at-bat, first including active players under the age of 40 (Table 2) and then excluding them (Table 3):

2. Most Regular-Season Home Runs per At-Bat, Career*

Player

Years

Times led league in HR

Total HR

Total AB

HR per AB

Mark McGwire

1986-2001

4

583

6,187

0.094

Babe Ruth

1914-1935

12

714

8,398

0.085

Barry Bonds

1986-2005

2

708

9,140

0.077

Jim Thome

1991-2005

1

430

5,919

0.073

Manny Ramirez

1993-2005

1

435

6,126

0.071

Ralph Kiner

1946-1955

7

369

5,205

0.071

Harmon Killebrew

1954-1975

6

573

8,147

0.070

Sammy Sosa

1989-2005

2

588

8,401

0.070

Alex Rodriguez

1994-2005

4

429

6,195

0.069

Ken Griffey Jr.

1989-2005

4

536

7,870

0.068

* Includes active players with a minimum of 3,000 plate appearances.

3. Most Regular-Season Home Runs per At-Bat, Career*

Player

Years

Times led league in HR

Total HR

Total AB

HR per AB

Mark McGwire

1986-2001

4

583

6,187

0.094

Babe Ruth

1914-1935

12

714

8,398

0.085

Barry Bonds

1986-2005

2

708

9,140

0.077

Ralph Kiner

1946-1955

7

369

5,205

0.071

Harmon Killebrew

1954-1975

6

573

8,147

0.070

Sammy Sosa

1989-2005

2

588

8,401

0.070

Ted Williams

1939-1960

4

521

7,706

0.068

Dave Kingman

1971-1986

2

442

6,677

0.066

Mickey Mantle

1951-1968

4

536

8,102

0.066

Jimmie Foxx

1925-1945

4

534

8,134

0.066

* Includes only those active players who are 40 years of age or older.

Tables 2 and 3 give a better indication of prowess than Table 1, but they do not take into account how the game of baseball has changed with time. A way to do that is to see how often a player excelled at hitting home runs, relative to his peers:

4. Most Seasons Leading League in Home Runs*

Player

Years

Times led league in HR

Total HR

Total AB

HR per AB

Babe Ruth

1914-1935

12

714

8,398

0.085

Mike Schmidt

1972-1989

8

548

8,352

0.066

Ralph Kiner

1946-1955

7

369

5,205

0.071

Harmon Killebrew

1954-1975

6

573

8,147

0.070

Mel Ott

1926-1947

6

511

9,456

0.054

Mark McGwire

1986-2001

4

583

6,187

0.094

Alex Rodriguez

1994-2005

4

429

6,195

0.069

Ted Williams

1939-1960

4

521

7,706

0.068

Ken Griffey Jr.

1989-2005

4

536

7,870

0.068

Mickey Mantle

1951-1968

4

536

8,102

0.066

Jimmie Foxx

1925-1945

4

534

8,134

0.066

Hank Greenberg

1930-1947

4

331

5,193

0.064

Willie Mays

1951-1973

4

660

10,881

0.061

Hank Aaron

1954-1976

4

755

12,364

0.061

Reggie Jackson

1967-1987

4

563

9,864

0.057

Johnny Mize

1936-1953

4

359

6,443

0.056

Hack Wilson

1923-1934

4

244

4,760

0.051

Chuck Klein

1928-1944

4

300

6,486

0.046

Cy Williams

1912-1930

4

251

6,780

0.037

* Excludes players who compiled most of their at-bats before 1920.

The criterion used in Table 4 still falls short because it doesn't take into account home-run frequency, which -- as I suggest above -- is a better indicator of prowess. Thus this comparison:

5. Most Seasons Leading League in Home Runs per At-Bat*

Player

Seasons

Times led league in HR/AB

Total HR

Total AB

HR/AB

Babe Ruth

1914-1935

13

714

8,398

0.085

Mel Ott

1926-1947

10

511

9,456

0.054

Mark McGwire**

1986-2001

8

583

6,187

0.094

Barry Bonds

1986-2005

8

708

9,140

0.077

Ralph Kiner

1946-1955

7

369

5,205

0.071

Harmon Killebrew

1954-1975

6

573

8,147

0.070

Ted Williams

1939-1960

6

521

7,706

0.068

Mike Schmidt

1972-1989

6

548

8,352

0.066

Willie McCovey

1959-1980

5

521

8,197

0.064

Cy Williams

1912-1930

5

251

6,780

0.037

Manny Ramirez

1993-2005

4

435

6,126

0.071

Jimmie Foxx

1925-1945

4

534

8,134

0.066

Willie Mays

1951-1973

4

660

10,881

0.061

* Excludes players who compiled most of their at-bats before 1920.


** McGwire switched leagues during the 1997 season. His totals for the entire season gave him a better HR/AB record than the official leader in either league. I have therefore credited McGwire with leading in HR/AB 8 times, as against his official record of leading 7 times.

There we have it, dominance against one's peers by a purer measure of prowess: home runs per at-bat in a season. Even purer measures are possible. As a Sabermetrician would tell you, seasonal performance should be adjusted for the characteristics of the ballparks a player played in, for the quality of the teams he played on (relative to the opposition), the equipment, the rules (e.g., height of the pitching mound), and so on.

Such adjustments might, for example, knock Mel Ott from his second-place perch because Ott (a left-handed batter) played his entire career (about one-half of his games) at the Polo Grounds, with its short foul lines (only 258 feet down the right-field line) and cavernous center field:

But Ott had to pull the ball sharply to take advantage of the peculiar geometry of the Polo Grounds, which meant that he had to adopt and perfect a peculiar batting style (a matter of skill). Because of that style, pitchers could more easily avoid throwing him pitches that he could pull, and fielders could more readily position themselves to defend the outfield gaps. In spite of that, Ott compiled a lifetime batting average of .304 while leading his league in HR/AB 10 times! Ott stays on the list, as do the other odd-balls:

  • Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire, with their weight-training and performance-enhancing substances.
  • Cy Williams, a left-handed batter who compiled a lot of his home runs in the friendly confines of Baker's Bowl, with its "short porch" in right field -- only 280 feet down the line, and not much more than that into right-center:

But Willams wasn't a fluke. He led his league in AB/HR five times in a 12-season span (1916-1927), and batted .292 over the course of his career, almost half of which was in the "dead ball" era.

It's impossible, really, to compare players who were not contemporaries. That's why I like Table 5. It affords the best picture of home-run prowess across time. Ruth still stands at the top of the list; the long-forgotten Mel Ott and Cy Williams are restored to the prominence they enjoyed when they played; and Ralph Kiner, Harmon Killebrew, Ted Williams, Mike Schmidt, and Willie McCovey re-gain their proper places of pre-eminence, unshadowed by players who racked up home runs through sheer longevity. Should McGwire and Bonds really be listed among the greats? Certainly they were the greats of their era, however they got there. That's all I have to say about that -- for now.

And so, with the help of Table 5, we can trace the succession of pre-eminent home-run hitters who played most or all of their careers in the "lively ball" era:

  • American League -- Babe Ruth (13 times in the span from 1918 through 1931), Jimmie Foxx (4 times during 1932-1939), Ted Williams (6, 1941-1957), Harmon Killebrew (6, 1959-1970), Mark McGwire (6, 1987-1997), and Manny Ramirez (4, 1999-2005). Those six players combined to lead the league in HR/AB in 39 of the 88 seasons from 1918 through 2005.

    Go back to hitters who played mostly in the "dead ball" era and you find Frank (Home Run Baker) and Harry Davis, who dominated the AL's home run lists (such as they were). Davis was a 4-time leader in HR/AB, from 1904 through 1907; Baker, a 4-time leader in the span from 1911 through 1916. Throw in, from the "lively ball" era, Lou Gehrig (2 times), Hank Greenberg (3), Gus Zernial (3), Mickey Mantle (2), Norm Cash (2), Dick Allen (2), Gorman Thomas (2), Reggie Jackson (2), Ron Kittle (2), Jose Canseco (2), Ken Griffey (2), and Jim Thome (2). Now you have a list of 20 players who combined to lead the AL in 73 of the 102 seasons from 1904 through 2005. That's a select group of fearsome sluggers.
  • National League -- Cy Williams (5 times in the span of 1916 through 1927), Mel Ott (10 times, 1929-1944), Ralph Kiner (7, 1947-1952), Willie Mays (4, 1955-1965), Willie McCovey (5, 1963-1970), Mike Scmidt (6, 1974-1986), and Barry Bonds (8, 1992-2004). Those seven players combined to lead the league in HR/AB in 45 of 90 seasons from 1916 through 2005.

    Now add Gavvy Cravath, another name from the "dead ball" era. Cravath -- Ruth's predecessor as all-time leader in total home runs -- led the NL in HR/AB 6 times during the seven seasons of 1912 through 1918. Throw in, from the "lively ball" era, Rogers Hornsby (2), Hack Wilson (2), Wally Berger (2), Eddie Matthews (3), Hank Aaron (3), Dave Kingman (3), George Foster (2), Darryl Strawberry (3), and Mark McGwire (2, his 70 and 65 HR seasons) and you have a mere 17 players who combined to lead the NL in 73 of the 94 seasons from 1912 through 2005. Another select group of dominating sluggers.

To see who filled the gaps, go here.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Players' statistics from Baseball-Reference.com; ballpark stats and photos from Ballparks by Munsey and Suppes.